Our services:

We offer custom weather forecast services using the latest state-of-the-art numerical weather prediction models. We currently use a 66-member ensemble forecast system to derive probabilistic weather forecasts for ice, snow, and wind. Our speciality is predicting power outage events due to severe winter weather. Some sample products are shown below, but we can tailor forecasts to your needs.

Multi-variable timeseries visualization:

Meteogram

The above plot shows a probabilistic air temperature (lines) combined with probabilistic accumulated precipitation forecast (bars and whiskers). A 32 threshold lines is also shown (red line). The probability information is available so that users can make more informed decisions by having scientific estimates of forecast uncertainties. In this case, users can see the likelihood of the temperature being below freezing while precipiation is occuring.

Probability of exceedance maps:

Exceedance Map

We produce plan-view maps depicting the probability of exceeding user-specified thresholds. Shown in this example is the probability of the wind gust speed exceeding 35 mph. Currently, exceedance statistics are calculated for snow, ice, temperature, and wind, and thresholds can be defined to your needs.

Spatial uncertainty:


Weather conditions vary in both space and time, and there are uncertainties with each. Our ensemble output can be used to help make informed decisions based on these uncertainies in the future weather conditions. The above maps show a spatial representation of the forecast air temperature uncertainty with a lead time of 120 hours. The most likely or best forecast is depicted on the top left panel. The differences between the 90th, 75th, 50th, 25th, and 10th percentile forecast maps show a measure of forecast confidence.

Situational Awareness Tables and Alerts:

Forecast Threshold Lines Exposed
HR1-24
% of Total Lines Exposed
HR1-24
Forecast Events
HR1-24
Lines Exposed
HR1-48
% of Total Lines Exposed
HR1-48
Forecast Events
HR1-48
Lines Exposed
HR1-72
% of Total Lines Exposed
HR1-72
Forecast Events
HR1-72
Lines Exposed HR 48-96 % of Total Lines Exposed HR 48-96 Forecast Events HR 48-96 Lines Exposed HR 72-120 % of Total Lines Exposed HR 72-120 Forecast Events HR 72-120
0.00 9604510 138770 138770 3489190 4040220
0.05 9084490 17301930 17301930 15154810 14599780
0.10 000 000 000 4500 4800
0.15 000 000 000 000 000
0.25 000 000 000 000 000
0.50 000 000 000 000 000
0.70 000 000 000 000 000
0.90 000 000 000 000 000
1.10 000 000 000 000 000
1.30 000 000 000 000 000
1.50 000 000 000 000 000
1.70 000 000 000 000 000
2.00 000 000 000 000 000
2.50 000 000 000 000 000
3.00 000 000 000 000 000
3.50 000 000 000 000 000
4.00 000 000 000 000 000
4.50 000 000 000 000 000

Situational awareness tables are color-coded tables that highlight risk areas. The line-mile statistics in the above table are area-wide summaries (sum of all sub-regions) calculated using the most likely or best forecast. Forecast thresholds in the left column are color coded by severity: green shows little to no risk, yellow illustrates moderate risk, and red highlights the high risk.